I’m not unrealistic about the fate of newspapers – far from it, I’m certified in Actionscript 2.0 (got to get on 3.0 though) and of course have been doing online comics for years.

But I believe the the current talk about the troubles of newspapers is missing something very important, maybe a few things. Commentators seem to talk about newspapers in trouble and then skip right to the web, and I think those who do that are wrong, and that’s important because if you don’t understand the cause I think you make mistakes about how to deal with the problem.

So here’s my diagnosis:

1) We’re in a recession: Yeah, sure, you know. But what hasn’t set in yet, I think, is just what it means. People don’t know or tend to forget that media in general and newspapers in particular have been canaries in a coal mine for economic downturns. They feel it first and frequently are slower to recover. The recession started in December 2007, and that summer newspaper companies started feeling it. Now you know what it looks like going into a deep, dark recession.

2) Attacks from the left and right. Mainstream media took a hit, some of it justified some of it not. I believe the right attacked mainstream media for political purposes, to turn people away from regular news sources in order to better control how their message is transmitted – propaganda. The left started to turn away from the mainstream during the Clinton impeachment and that exodus increased during the Bush years as national reporting failed to adequately question much of what was happening in the Bush White House. That failure on the national level tainted the local news, as much of it was transmitted over the wires and printed by smaller publications without the means to fact check it. Local news agencies were burned by the their national services.

3) Bad corporate decisions. Whatever happened to making a living? As far as I can see, consolidation has only worked for the phone company, corporate fat cats who get big payoffs for voting for it and the people who earn fees for putting the deals together. After that, it seems everyone else gets screwed. It is unfortunate, but quite a bit of the worst news about newspaper companies is particular to their specific situation.

4) Competition from the internet (as well as other sources). Look at that. Number four! Three other things I feel are far more damaging to newspapers right now than the internet, and yet it seems it’s the first thing people think of.

Why do I put competition so low? Because before the recession, even with Craigslist and other things, newspapers were making healthy profits. And even though the most recent PEW study shows that more people get their news online than from newspapers, they’re getting their news from newspaper organizations via online.

The internet is not causing the downturn in the newspaper industry, the recession is. Competition from the internet will likely influence how well the newspaper industry recovers, but it’s not the cause of the recession. Some cities may be left without a daily newspaper serving them, but hell, we may lose up to 25% of our retail stores in this country. Everyone is hurting.

Again, this is important because you have to recognize the cause of your problem in order to adequately address it.

I can see pulling back from printing stock listings or TV guides – things that are available from multiple sources. But why get rid of original, local content like that created by cartoonists when you should be retraining them to put their stuff online and drive traffic to your website?

UPDATE: Welcome Shirky fans! This is the home of the online mystery/webcomic Odd Jobs. Links to a whole bunch of free comic goodness on the left, so please look around. The third book in the series, “Cash & Carry,” was published by Echelon Press as their first graphic novel and optioned for television by Warner Bros.
Please note I have no ill feelings about Clay Shirky – agree with him about a lot. But his two blog posts, I believe, vastly understate the affect of the biggest recession in generations. I say this a lot, but This is what the worst recession in generations looks like. And when I say that, I mean we as a society should have laws to curb the irresponsible behavior that’s bringing the entire world’s economy to its knees. The newspaper industry isn’t hurting just because of the internet, it’s hurting because of greed and poor business decisions both inside but mostly outside of the industry.
Here’s a followup post to his followup post, and that’s pretty much all I have to say about that – I’d rather do comics!

Dirk – and in fairness everyone else – routinely links to bad news and analysis about the newspaper industry. Recently more newspaper folks have started to consider – horrors – making people pay for the content they produce. I was struck by a comment Dirk made:

Finally, T.J. Sullivan would like to see more people getting their news from CNN, NPR and the BBC’s websites — oh, wait a minute, I meant “At the stroke of midnight on Independence Day, Saturday July 4, all daily newspapers ought to switch off their Web sites until Friday, July 10.” Which is the same thing, mind you.

Now, I don’t think it’s a good idea to shut down websites – and in fairness to Shirky I don’t necessarily believe micropayments will work. But I do think an important point is being missed here – what’s happening is the growing realization that newspapers actually do more than distribute national and international wire copy and canned features.

They cover their local news, and that’s filling a niche that no one else can. Not consistently, not responsibly and not for a long period of time. At least, not without getting PAID for it. I have read and I continue to see all the arguments and fancy language some people use to argue for a new utopia of information, where people will turn to amateur sources of information rather than pay for it.

Gee, sounds like … doing a webcomic! Wow! Out of all the webcomics there have been, how many have been around – oh, 5 years on a consistent basis? You know, make their update schedule when promised. Very, very few – I know I haven’t.

Now, out of all the people attending council meetings in every suburb in every state, how many have not missed one in – oh, five years? And followed up on all the stories that come out of them. And analyzed data and investigated corruption. For free, while also holding down a day job to pay the bills?

That’s a niche. The Wall Street Journal figured it out. And quite a few organizations and trade publications have figured it out too – there are subscription walls everywhere, and people pay to get access. Because they figured out there’s no profit in feeding the social networking habits of someone who isn’t going click on ads or purchase merchandise. They want the product you produce – the niche product.

News gathering organizations will be smaller, but they’re not going away. And you’ll be paying for them directly, not just indirectly through advertising.

I plan to write more about the future – specifically comics – for an article at Comixtalk

Seriously, he spent a few thousand words in his latest post saying that he has no idea what will happen to news if newspapers go away. And rationalizes that it’s OK that he doesn’t know, that it’s not his responsibility to know.
I’m not sure why so many people are listening to a guy who can’t figure out how to apply a theme to his WordPress blog, or at least fill out the “About” page.* But I suspect Clay just gave everyone permission to stop listening to him, at least until the recession is over.
Yes, newspapers are in trouble. So is television. So are retail stores. So are comic shops. So are the banks and the auto industry and a whole bunch of other industries.
This is what the worst recession in generations looks like. To think that newspapers would be immune from this is silly – but to assert that your own academic interest is a more valid reason for one specific industry’s problems – especially in the face of a global economic meltdown – to me that borders on ghoulish.
It’s like a doctor specializing in viruses being concerned about a patient’s fever while ignoring the bullet wounds. It’s not that the opinion isn’t valid, I just don’t think it’s as pertinent as he thinks it is.
And so, it’s rather unhelpful.
I addressed the idea of the value of a niche earlier, specifically local news.
And I took on the idea of the new economy as it applies to comics here, but there are parallels to the newspaper industry in it.
Bottom line: Aside from the obvious fact that the entire world’s economy is crashing down around us, what’s being disrupted is the old way of having content largely paid for indirectly through advertising. Even Shirky acknowledges that news gathering has value – and where there’s value, there’s business.
It’s just that business sucks right now, for everyone.

* As of 3/15/09, it still had the default text in it:
“About
This is an example of a WordPress page, you could edit this to put information about yourself or your site so readers know where you are coming from. You can create as many pages like this one or sub-pages as you like and manage all of your content inside of WordPress.”
Clay, hire me. I can help. And buy my book!